Solar Generation: The Expected vs Actual Dilemma

The solar industry grapples with a very real problem: the mismatch between expected and actual generation.

Before you dive in, here’s a quick analogy: Think of installing a solar power plant - be it on your home, factory, or farmland - just as you’d expect a certain crop yield per acre, or you measure a car’s mileage in km per litre, solar generation comes with its own metric: yield per installed kW, typically measured in kWh (units).

This yield isn't a mystery - it can be calculated or forecasted using historic weather data, geographic parameters, and a well-established set of mathematical models. Yet, despite this science, the solar industry continues to grapple with a very real problem: the mismatch between expected and actual generation.

The Illusion of Guarantees

The solar sector in India has often sold itself on big promises. Chief among them is the “Generation Guarantee”—an assurance that your solar system will produce a minimum number of units per installed kW, often pegged around 1500 kWh/kWp/year (about 4.1 units per day per kW). Throw in a degradation clause (usually around 0.5% per annum) and this promise starts to sound very official, very bulletproof.

But here’s the catch: Not all systems are built alike. And not all locations or conditions justify the same expectations, 2024 weather may more favorable than 2025- how did your generation increase when it was supposed to degrade by a %

Too often, these guarantees are negotiated by the buyer’s CA, Purchase Team, or chat , who may know everything about solar pricing, but very little about solar physics. They rarely account for nuances like:

• Tilt and Azimuth (orientation) of panels

• Shading patterns throughout the day/year

• Cleaning frequency and dust losses

• Inverter efficiency

• Cable losses, mismatch losses, and temperature coefficients

In short, there’s a lot more going on behind those generation numbers than most realize.

Why This Matters

At Grid-Insight, we’ve seen how this mismatch in expectations vs reality can lead to friction, conflict, and disappointment. Most small system owners don’t have access to granular performance data. They typically monitor their system once a month—when the electricity bill shows up. And by then, if performance is off, the damage is already done.

On the other hand, large asset management firms have the tools—advanced analytics, on-site sensors, weather stations—to precisely measure and even optimize generation. For them, even a 1% gain in efficiency can translate into lakhs of rupees.

But why should accurate insights be reserved for the big players?

That’s where we come in.

No More Guesswork: The Grid-Insight Way

With just a few critical inputs—system capacity, location, tilt, azimuth, and even how often you clean your panels—Grid-Insight AI uses satellite data to calculate your expected generation in real time.

No more guesswork. No more vague benchmarks. You’ll know exactly what your system should be generating, and how it's actually performing. We even account for soiling losses and adjust based on cleaning frequency.

This not only empowers system owners to take back control—it brings accountability into the ecosystem.

A Smarter Future for Solar: Democratization Of Insights

The future of solar isn’t just about installing more panels—it’s about making them work smarter. That means better data, better expectations, and better outcomes for everyone—from a 5 kW rooftop setup to a 5 MW solar farm.

At Grid-Insight, we believe performance transparency shouldn’t be a luxury. It should be the norm.